The seatbelt
for prediction
market traders.
Pararail is the risk infrastructure layer for prediction markets — instant, parametric downside protection for every position on Polymarket and Kalshi. Pay a premium, keep your principal if the bet goes against you.
Every contract resolves at $1 or $0. Win everything, or lose everything.
There are no stop-losses, no hedges, and no protection mechanics natively available on prediction markets today. Traditional finance solved this decades ago with options and insurance. Prediction markets have never had a single protection primitive — until now.
Mainstream adoption accelerated after prediction markets proved accurate through the 2024 US election cycle. Kalshi secured full CFTC legitimacy and institutional volume has started entering the space. As bet sizes scale, infrastructure has lagged — Pararail is building the protective financial layer underneath it.
Buckle a position in four steps.
A trader pays a small premium for peace of mind. If the bet loses, a smart contract deposits the protected principal back into their wallet automatically — settled by decentralized oracles, no claim forms, no customer service calls.
Configure depth
Trader chooses coverage from 10–100% of a position and gets an instant premium quote.
Atomic split
The premium splits instantly: 15% fee to Pararail, 85% locked in escrow with the underwriter pool.
Oracle tracking
Live data feeds monitor the underlying market's resolution in real time.
Auto-settlement
The smart contract settles payouts automatically the moment the market resolves.
Two revenue streams, priced dynamically.
Premiums are priced between 2.5% and 22.0% based on implied probability and a market volatility index — no flat rate, no guesswork.
Collected instantly from every gross premium. This high-margin stream carries zero exposure to underlying market outcomes and scales linearly with trading volume.
Pararail Capital SPV captures 85% of net premium returns on deployed liquidity, acting as the anchor underwriter to secure early economics.
| Capture rate | Daily bets | Gross premium | Pararail fee | Capital yield | Total revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | 2,000 | $29M | $4.4M | $24.7M | $29M |
| 5% | 5,000 | $73M | $11M | $62M | $73M |
| 10% | 10,000 | $146M | $22M | $124M | $146M |
The window to build is open right now.
Regulatory legitimacy
Kalshi's 2024 CFTC ruling legally recognized prediction markets in the US, opening the door for institutional positions that require downside hedging.
Mainstream scale
The 2024 election put Polymarket on the front page of global media, exposing over 400M retail participants to event contracts for the first time.
Unclaimed category
Zero active competitors provide programmatic, parametric protection on live prediction exchange contracts. Pararail owns first-mover advantage.
Oracle maturity
Automated infrastructure like UMA's Optimistic Oracle and Chainlink nodes is now battle-tested enough to run instant, trustless payouts.
Liquidity begets liquidity.
As Pararail secures more underwriting capital, it can protect larger trades, attracting institutional volume that retail-only competitors can't service.
Liquidity begets liquidity — deeper underwriter capital lets Pararail protect larger positions, drawing in the institutional volume retail-only rivals can't touch.
Every resolved contract builds our event risk database, generating an accurate pricing model that's sellable as a standalone asset to hedge funds.
Our technical core — pricing engine, oracle mapping, automated vaults — extends to sports betting, corporate events, and global parametric insurance.
$750,000 deployed for a 12-month runway.
Deployed directly into the Pararail Capital SPV as anchor liquidity, to secure early premium economics and validate underwriting performance models.
Powers full-stack MVP execution: Kalshi/Polymarket API bindings, the pricing math engine, and smart contract deployment on Polygon.
SEC, CFTC, and cross-border legal mapping, infrastructure node costs, and early market-engineering payroll for core protocol development.
The team.
Specialized in complex marketplace dynamics and fintech structures. Previously engineered and operated an end-to-end autonomous AI engineering agency, compressing enterprise production software lifecycles by 90%.
An elite systems software or smart-contract protocol peer to lead the core engineering workstream — pricing engine, oracle integrations, and settlement contracts.
Building the seatbelt for a $3.2B+ market with zero protection today.
We're talking with investors who understand infrastructure plays in prediction markets and DeFi risk primitives. If that's you, we'd like to hear from you.